20 Questions
a journalist should ask about poll results
For journalists and for pollsters, questions are the most
frequently used tool for gathering information.
Here are 20 questions for the journalist to ask the pollster
before reporting poll results. This publication is designed to help
the working journalist do a thorough, professional job covering
polls; it is not a primer on how to conduct a public opinion survey.
This work is about polls that are "scientific." A
number of the questions will help you decide whether or not a poll
is a "scientific" one worthy of coverage - or an
unscientific survey that may be entertaining, but meaningless.
Of the scientific polls, the Gallup Poll is probably the best
known and one of the oldest. There are many other excellent surveys
conducted by reputable firms, as well.
The unscientific surveys are less well- known, if quite
widespread. There are 900-number call-in polls, man-on-the-street
surveys, shopping mall polls, and even the classic toilet tissue
poll featuring pictures of the candidates on each sheet.
The major distinguishing difference between scientific and
unscientific polls is who picks the respondents for the survey. In a
scientific poll, the pollster identifies and seeks out the people to
be interviewed. In an unscientific poll, the respondents usually
"volunteer" their opinions, selecting themselves for the
poll.
The results of the well-conducted scientific poll can provide a
reliable guide to the opinions of many people in addition to those
interviewed-even the opinions of all Americans. The results of an
unscientific poll tell you nothing more than simply what those
respondents say.
With these 20 questions in hand, the journalist can seek the
facts to decide just how to handle every poll that comes across the
news desk each day.
1. Who did the poll?
What polling firm, research house, political campaign, corporation,
or other group conducted the poll? This is always the first question
to ask. If you don't know who did the poll, you can't get the
answers to all the other questions listed here. And if the person
providing poll results can't or won't tell you who did it, serious
questions must be raised about the reliability and truthfulness of
the results being presented.
In most cases, reputable polling firms will provide you with the
information you need to evaluate the survey. And because reputation
is important to a quality firm, a professionally conducted poll will
avoid many errors.
2. Who paid for the poll and why was it done?
You must know who paid for the survey, because that tells you-and
your audience-who thought these topics were important enough to
spend money finding out what people think. And that goes to the
whole issue of why the poll was done.
Polls usually are not conducted for the good of the world. They
are conducted for a reason - either to gain helpful information or
to advance a particular cause. It may be the news organization wants
to develop a good story. It may be the politician wants to be
re-elected. It may be that the corporation is trying to push sales
of its new product. Or a special interest group may be trying to
prove that its views are the views of the entire country. All are
legitimate reasons for doing a poll.
The important issue for you as a journalist is whether the motive
for doing the poll creates such serious doubts about the validity of
the poll results that the results should not be publicized.
An example of suspect polls are private polls conducted by a
political campaign. These polls are conducted solely to help the
candidate win - and for no other reason. The poll may have
terrifically slanted questions or a strange sampling methodology,
all with a tactical campaign purpose. For example, the campaign may
be testing out new slogans or a new stance on a key issue or a new
attack on the opponent.
But since accurately gauging the general public's sentiments is
not the goal of the candidate's poll, the results should be reported
with great care.
Likewise, reporting on a survey by a special interest group is
tricky. For example, an environmental group trumpets a poll saying
the American people support strong measures to protect the
environment. That may be true, but the poll may have been conducted
for a group with definite views. That may have swayed the question
wording, the timing of the poll, the group interviewed, and the
order of the questions. You should examine the poll to be certain
that it accurately samples public opinion-and does not simply push a
single viewpoint.
3. How many people were interviewed for the survey?
This is another basic piece of information you should have. Because
polls give approximate answers, the more people interviewed in a
scientific poll, the smaller the error due to the size of the
sample, all other things being equal. However, a common trap to
avoid is that more is automatically better. It is absolutely true
that the more people interviewed in a reliable survey, the smaller
the sampling error - all other things being equal. But, other
factors may be more important in judging the quality of a survey.
4. How were those people chosen?
The key reason that some polls reflect public opinion accurately and
other are unscientific junk is how the people were chosen to be
interviewed.
In scientific polls, the pollster uses a specific method for
picking respondents. In unscientific polls, the person picks himself
to participate.
The method pollsters use to pick interviewees relies on the
bedrock of mathematical reality: when the chance of selecting each
person in the target population is known, then and only then do the
results of the sample survey reflect the entire population. This is
called a random sample or a probability sample. This is the reason
that interviews with 1000 American adults can accurately reflect the
opinions of more than 185 million American adults.
Most scientific samples use special techniques to be economically
feasible. For example, some sampling methods for telephone
interviewing do not just pick randomly generated telephone numbers.
Only telephone exchanges that are known to contain working
residential numbers are selected - to reduce the number of wasted
calls.
But even a random sample cannot be purely random in practice
since some people don't have phones, refuse to answer, or aren't
home.
5. What area: nation, state, or region - or what group:
teachers, lawyers, Democratic voters, etc. - were these people
chosen from?
Although the results of probability samples can be projected to
represent the larger population from which they were selected, the
characteristics of the larger population must be specified. For
example, you should know if a sample represents all people in the
United States or just those in one state or one city. In another
example, the case of telephone samples, the population is that of
people living in households with telephones. For most purposes,
telephone households may be similar to the general population. But,
if you were reporting a poll on what it was like to be poor or
homeless, this would not be the appropriate sample. Remember, the
use of a scientific sampling technique does not mean that the
correct population was interviewed.
It is absolutely critical to know from which group the
interviewees were chosen.
For example, a survey of business people can reflect the opinions
of business people - but not of all adults. Only if the interviewees
were chosen from among all American adults can the poll reflect the
opinions of all American adults.
Political polls are especially sensitive to this issue.
In pre-primary and pre-election polls, how the people are chosen
as the base for poll results is critical. A poll of all adults, for
example, is not very useful on a primary race where only 25 percent
of the registered voters actually turn out. So look for polls based
on registered voters, "likely voters," previous primary
voters, and such. These distinctions are important and should be
included in the story.
One of the most variable aspects of polling is trying to figure
out who actually is going to vote.
6. Are the results based on the answers of all the people
interviewed?
One of the easiest ways to misrepresent the results of a poll is to
report the answers of only a subgroup. For example, there is usually
a substantial difference between the opinions of Democrats and
Republicans on campaign-related matters. Reporting the opinions of
only Democrats in a poll purported to be of all adults would
substantially misrepresent the results.
Poll results based on Democrats must be identified as such and
should be reported as representing only Democratic opinions.
Of course, reporting on just one sub-group can be exactly the
right course. In polling on a Republican primary contest, it is the
opinions of the Republicans who can vote in the primary that count -
not those of Democrats who cannot vote in that GOP contest.
7. Who should have been interviewed and was not?
You ought to know how many people refused to answer the survey or
were never contacted.
The non-response rate is the percentage of people contacted who
should have been interviewed, but were not. They may have refused
attempts to interview them. Or interviews may not have been
attempted if people were not home when the interviewer called.
The results of a survey should be judged very differently if the
1 00 convention delegates interviewed were a random sample of 1000
delegates as compared to their being the only 100 out of the 1000
willing to participate. The same potential for distorted results
occurs if some of the delegates who were in the sample were never
actually contacted.
8. When was the poll done?
Events have a dramatic impact on poll results. Your interpretation
of a poll should depend on when it was conducted relative to key
events. Even the freshest poll results can be overtaken by
subsequent events. The President may have given a stirring speech to
the notion, the stock market may have crashed, or an oil tanker may
have sunk, spilling millions of gallons of crude on beautiful
beaches. Poll results that are several weeks or months old may be
perfectly valid as history, but are not always newsworthy.
9. How were the interviews conducted?
There are three main possibilities: in person at home, by telephone,
or by mail.
Most surveys are now conducted by telephone, with the calls made
from a central interviewing center. However, some surveys are still
conducted by sending interviewers into people's homes to conduct the
interviews.
Some surveys are conducted by mail. In scientific polls, the
pollster picks the people to receive the mail questionnaires. The
respondent fills out the questionnaire and returns it.
Mail surveys can be excellent sources of information, but it
takes weeks to do a mail survey, meaning that the results cannot be
as timely as a telephone survey. And mail surveys can be subject to
other kinds of errors, Particularly low response rates, In many mail
surveys, more people fail to participate than do. This makes the
results suspect.
Surveys done in shopping malls, in stores or restaurants or on
the sidewalk may have their uses for their sponsors, but publishing
the results in the media is not among them. These "man in the
street" approaches may yield interesting human interest
stories, but they should never be treated as if they represent a
public opinion poll.
10. Is this a dial-in poll, a mail-in poll, or a subscriber
coupon poll?
If the poll you are looking at is a dial-in, mail-in, or coupon
poll, don't report the results because the respondents are
self-selected. These pseudo-polls have no validity, Remember, the
purpose of a poll is to draw conclusions about the population, not
about the sample. In these pseudo-polls there is no way to project
the results to any larger group, Scientific polls usually show
different results than pseudo-polls.
The 900-number dial-in polls may be fine for deciding whether or
not Larry the Lobster should be cooked on Saturday Night Live or
even for dedicated fans to express their opinions on who is the
greatest quarterback in the National Football League, but they have
only entertainment value. There is no way to tell who actually
called in, how old they are, or how many times each person called.
Never be fooled by the number of responses. In some cases, a few
people call in thousands of times. Even if 500,000 calls are
tallied, no one has any real knowledge of what the results mean. If
big numbers impress you, remember that the Literary Digest's
non-scientific sample of 12,000,000 people said Landon would beat
Roosevelt.
The subscriber coupon polls are just as bad. In these cases, the
magazine or newspaper includes a coupon to be mailed in with the
answers to the questions. Again, there is no way to know who
responded and how many times. These results are not projectable even
to the subscribers of the publication that includes the coupon.
11. What is the sampling error for the poll results?
Interviews with a scientific sample of 1 000 adults can accurately
reflect the opinions of more than 185 million adults. That means
interviews attempted with all 185 million adults - if such were
possible - would give approximately the same results as a
well-conducted survey.
But what happens if another carefully done poll of 1000 adults
gives slightly different results from the first survey? Neither of
the polls is "wrong." This range of results is called the
error due to sampling, often called the margin of error.
This is not an "error" in the sense of making a
mistake. Rather, it is a measure of the possible range of
approximation in the results because a sample was used.
Pollsters express the size of the uncertainty caused by using a
sample at a "confidence level."This means a sample is
likely to be within so many points of the results one would have
gotten if an interview was attempted with the entire target
population. They usually say this with 95% confidence. Thus, for
example, a "3 percentage point margin of error" in a
national poll means that if the attempt was made to interview every
adult in the nation with the same questions in the same way at about
the same time as the poll was taken, the poll's answers would fall
within plus or minus 3 percentage points of the complete count
result 95% of the time.
Please note that this does not address the issue of whether or
not people cooperate with the survey, or if the questions are
understood, or if any other methodological issue exists. The
sampling error is only the portion of the potential error in a
survey introduced by using a sample rather than the entire
population. Sampling error tells us nothing about the refusals or
those consistently unavailable for interview; it also tells us
nothing about the biasing effects of a particular question wording
or the bias a particular interviewer may inject into the interview
situation.
Remember that the sampling error margin applies to each figure in
the results - it is at least 3 percentage points plus or minus for
each one. Thus, in a poll question matching two candidates for
President, both figures are subject to sampling error.
This raises one of the thorniest problems in the presentation of
poll results. For a horse-race poll, when is one candidate really
ahead of the other?
Certainly, when the gap between the two candidates is more than
twice the error margin - 6 percentage points in our example - you
can say with confidence that the poll says Candidate A is leading
Candidate B.
And just as certainly, if the gap between the two candidates is
less than error margin then you should not say that one candidate is
ahead of the other, Then, the race is "clos"; the race is
"roughly even"; or there is "little difference
between the candidates."
And bear in mind that when subgroup results are reported - women
or blacks, or young people - the sampling error margin for those
figures is greater than for results based on the survey as a whole.
12. What other kinds of mistakes can skew poll results?
The margin of sampling error is just one source of inaccuracy in a
poll and not necessarily the greatest source of error: we use it
because it's the only one that can be quantified. Question phrasing
and ordering are also a likely source of flaws. That's why you need
to examine poll questions for bias.
You should always ask if the poll results have been
"weighted." This process is usually used to account for
unequal probabilities of selection and to correct demographics in
the sample. However, you should be aware that a poll can also be
unduly manipulated by weighting to produce some desired result.
And there are other possible sources of error. These include
issues such as inadequate interviewer training and supervision, data
processing errors, and other operational problems. Professional
polling operations are less subject to these problems than
volunteer-conducted polls, which are usually less trustworthy.
13. What questions were asked?
You must find out the exact wording of the poll questions. Why?
Because the very wording of questions can make major differences in
the results.
Perhaps the best test of any poll question is your reaction to
it. On the face of it, does the question seem fair and unbiased?
Does it present a balanced set of choices? Would people you know be
able to answer the question?
On sensitive questions - such as abortion - the complete wording
of the question should probably be included in your story. But at
the very least, you must have the exact wording as you are preparing
the story.
It may well be worthwhile to compare the results of several
different polls from different organizations on these sensitive
questions. In that case, you should be careful to compare both the
results and the exact wording of the questions.
14. In what order were the questions asked?
Sometimes the very order of the questions can have an impact on the
results. Often that impact is intentional; sometimes, it is not. The
impact of order can often be subtle.
During troubled economic times, for example, if people are asked
what they think of the economy before they are asked their opinion
of the president, the presidential popularity rating will probably
be lower than if you had reversed the questions, And in good
economic times, the opposite is true.
In political polls, campaign consultants often ask a series of
questions about various issue positions of the candidates - or
various things that could be said about the candidates. After these
questions are asked, the horse-race question is asked, usually for
the second time in the poll. This second horse-race question is then
examined to see if the questions about issues and positions swayed
any opinions, This may be a good way to test issues. It is a poor
way to test the candidates' true standings in the public's mind.
What is important here is whether the questions that went before the
important question affect the results. If the poll asks questions
about abortion just before a question about an abortion ballot
measure, those previous questions could sway the results.
15. What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say
the same thing? If they are different, why are they different?
Results of other polls - a candidate's opponent, public polls, media
polls, or whatever - should be used to check and contrast poll
results you have in hand.
If the polls differ, first check the timing of when the
interviewing was done. The different poll results may demonstrate a
swing in public opinion.
If the polls were done about the same time, and no other factor
seems to explain the disagreement, go to each poll sponsor and ask
for an explanation of the differences. Conflicting polls often make
good stories.
16. So, the poll says the race is all over. What now?
No matter how good the poll, no matter how wide the margin, no
matter how big the sample, a pre-election poll does not show that
one candidate has the race "locked up." Things change -
often and dramatically in politics.
17. Was the poll part of a fund-raising effort?
This is another example of a pseudo-poll. An organization sends out
a survey form to a large list of people. The last question usually
asks for a contribution from the respondent. He or she is expected
to send money to support the organization or pay for tabulating the
survey.
The people who respond to these types of surveys are likely to be
those who agree with the organization's goals. Also, the questions
are usually loaded and the results, meaningless.
This technique is used by a wide variety of organizations from
political parties and special-interest groups to charitable
organizations, Again, if the poll in question is part of a
fund-raising pitch, pitch it - in the waste basket.
18. So I've asked all the questions. The answers sound good.
The poll is correct, right?
Usually, yes. However, remember that the laws of chance alone say
that the results of one poll out of 20 may be skewed away from the
public's real views just because of sampling error.
19. With all these potential problems, should we ever report
poll results?
Yes. Because reputable polling organizations consistently do good
work. In spite of the difficulties, the public opinion survey,
correctly conducted, is still the best objective measure of the
state of the views of the public.
20.Is this poll worth reporting?
If the poll was conducted correctly, and you have been able to
obtain the information outlined here, your news judgment and that of
your editors should be applied to polls, as it is to every other
element of a story.
(Taken from a publication of NCPP, the National Council on Public
Polls. It was written by Sheldon R. Gawiser and G. Evans Witt,
cofounders of the Associated Press/NBC News Poll.)
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