Democrats hopeful Texas and Ohio
will produce front-runner Tuesday
Tuesday's Democratic primaries in Texas and Ohio could mark a pivotal moment for the presidential campaigns of Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Obama has won 10 state contests from Maine to Washington state to Virginia.
"We finally may be seeing something that involves momentum,"said Washington and Lee politics Professor Bill Connelly. "Political pundits, myself included, decried the front-loaded calendar and said it would make the whole race about momentum. It now appears the front-loaded schedule had the opposite effect.”
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| Obama and Clinton sqaure off Tuesday evening in Cleveland in the last Democratic debate (AP Photo) |
Obama's win in the Iowa caucuses in January was followed by a Clinton win in the New Hampshire primary. Then Clinton won Nevada, Obama won South Carolina and the two essentially split the delegates awarded on Super Tuesday.
On that day, Feb. 5, Clinton won states where she did well among Latinos and white women, especially older white women. But exit polls from Virginia's Feb. 12 primary show that Clinton's coalition might have been starting to crack. Obama swept the Maryland, Washington, D.C. and Virginia primaries.
Until a few weeks ago, polls showed Clinton with big leads in both Ohio and Texas. Now, most polls show a virtual dead heat in both states.
In Virginia, Obama won every part of the state except western Virginia, where a large number of rural, lower-income voters helped give Clinton a 56-44 advantage. But statewide, Clinton lost every single income level to Obama. Voters making less than $15,000 a year and voters making more than $200,000 a year both gave about two-thirds of their votes to the Illinois senator. That could present a worrisome development for Clinton, who in other races has done well among lower-income voters.
Connelly, who has been studying presidential elections for years, cautioned that it's difficult to take demographic results in one state and apply them to another state.
"Other variables like organization come into play,"Connelly said.
In Ohio, and to a lesser extent in Texas, the votes of union members will be critical. Only 14 percent of Virginia voters were from a union household, and they voted heavily for Obama. The Illinois senator has also won endorsements from the Teamsters and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU).
In recent weeks Clinton and Obama have both been courting these union voters, many of whom say they lost their jobs after former President Bill Clinton signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Obama spokesman Kevin Griffis thinks voters will remember that.
"I think [Obama's] opposition to trade agreements like NAFTA and wanting to reform NAFTA to reflect American values will be important,"Griffis said.
Clinton's staff did not return phone calls and e-mails seeking comment. Neither she nor Obama was in office when the agreement was signed, and Clinton has also argued that much of the agreement was drafted by the administration of former President George H.W. Bush.
When voters wake up on March 5, the Democratic race may finally have some clarity. Both Hillary and Bill Clinton have called Ohio and Texas "must-win"states, so an Obama sweep could knock her out of the race.
A Clinton sweep, or a split, however, might keep the picture muddled and keep both candidates fighting for delegates until the June conclusion of primary season.
Produced by
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Lead Supervisors:
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Richardson
Prof. Phylissa
Mitchell
Editing supervisor:
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