By Douglas R. Sweeney
With 48 first- and second-round games in the books, it's time to look
back on how we got to the Sweet 16 and look forward to the Final Four in
Indianapolis.
Atlanta Regional
Duke (1)
How they got here - J.J. Redick and the Blue Devils beat Southern
and George Washington in the first two rounds to advance to their ninth
consecutive Sweet 16. Redick led the team in scoring with 24.5 points
per game in the first two rounds and Shelden Williams has already
grabbed 32 rebounds in the tournament.
How far will they go - Duke was one of the favorites to win the
national title at the beginning of the season, and they still are now.
With two All-Americans (Redick and Williams) on the roster, this team
can beat anyone. The only question will be how freshmen Greg Paulus and
Josh McRoberts play as the pressure increases.
LSU (4)
How they got here - The SEC regular-season champion Tigers are a
trendy Final Four pick even though they almost didn’t make it through
the first two rounds. After holding off pesky Iona, LSU needed a last
second three-pointer to beat 12th-seeded Texas A&M. Senior guard Darrel
Mitchell hit the shot with just 3.9 seconds remaining to put his team up
by one. LSU is led by big Glen Davis (6’9”, 310 lbs.) who has averaged
21.5 points and 10.5 boards a game.
How far will they go - LSU faces Duke in the Sweet 16 which provides
one of the better big-man match ups of the year with Davis and Williams.
Don’t expect the Tigers to be intimidated by Duke; they played UConn
down to the last minute earlier this season in Hartford.
West Virginia (6)
How they got here - The Mountaineers are led by a strong core of
seniors who reached the Elite Eight last year. The Big East power easily
handled a strong Southern Illinois team in the first round and then
crushed Northwestern State’s in the second. Kevin Pittsnogle led the
team in scoring in the tournament by averaging 16 points per game.
How far will they go - WVU meets Texas next in a rematch of an early
season game that the Longhorns won by a last second shot. The
Mountaineers' Mike Gansey can shoot the lights out from behind the arc
(who shot nearly 43 percent from three point range this year). This
alone makes the team dangerous but combine it with the fact that they
play fundamental basketball and rarely turn the ball over (8.7 per game)
and the Mountaineers are downright scary. Their only weakness is their
inability to rebound which will be exposed against tougher opponents
like Texas.
Texas (2)
How they got here - After letting the Ivy League Champion
Pennsylvania Quakers stay close in the first round, the Longhorns showed
what they could do by beating N.C. State by 21 in round two. Texas has
been a two-man show in the tournament so far with junior P.J. Tucker and
sophomore LeMarcus Aldridge combining to score 63 of the teams total 135
points.
How far will they go - Many believe that Texas could become the
first school in NCAA history two win the national championship in
football and basketball in the same year. Don’t expect that two happen.
The Longhorns have a strong starting five who can play with anyone, but
they are still the same team that lost by 31 to Duke in December. Don’t
be surprised if they lose to West Virginia.
Oakland Regional
Memphis (1)
How they got here - Memphis dismantled Oral Roberts and Bucknell en
route to the Sweet 16. The Tigers are a deep team who have nine men who
play at least 11 minutes a game, this diversity showed in the first two
rounds: seven players have scored at least 15 total points in the first
two games. Rodney Carney has led the way by scoring 19 and 10 points in
the first two games, respectively.
How far will they go - Memphis has what appears to be a cake walk
into the Final Four. They play 13th-seeded Bradley and if they win then
the winner of Gonzaga-UCLA, two teams the Tigers beat in the regular
season.
Bradley (13)
How they got here - The Braves shocked everybody when they knocked
off Final Four-hopeful Kansas in the first round, and they continued to
amaze by defeating Big East power Pittsburgh in the second. It is the
first time Bradley has reached the Sweet 16 in 51 years.
How far will they go - We all love a Cinderella story, but don’t
expect Bradley’s run to continue against a strong Memphis squad.
Gonzaga (3)
How they got here - The Bulldogs would have been upset by
14th-seeded Xavier in the first round had player of the year candidate
Adam Morrison not dropped 35 points to pull out a 79-75 victory. In
their second round game the ‘Zags looked better, defeating Indiana by 10
points. Like in the regular season, Gonzaga was carried by Morrison
(24.5 ppg) and J.P. Batista (19 ppg) in the first two rounds.
How far will they go - The Bulldogs will only go as far as Morrison
will take them. The 6’8” junior can be unstoppable at times but plays
poorly if a team is physical with him. The ‘Zags have a tough match up
with UCLA and then Memphis, potentially. Morrison has drawn comparisons
to Larry Bird, but Bird carried his Indiana State squad to the finals in
1979. Can Morrison do the same for the Bulldogs? Probably not.
UCLA (2)
How they got here - The Bruins destroyed Belmont in the first round,
beating them by 34 points. The second round was not as easy for UCLA who
needed a late surge to stay ahead of Alabama ultimately defeating them
62-59. The scoring has been led by freshman Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and
Jordan Farmar, both of whom are averaging 13 points per game.
How far will they go - If UCLA makes it to the Final Four, they will
have done so with out leaving their home state. Their first two games
took place in San Diego, and the regional will be in Oakland. This
should prove an advantage for a program with proud fans.
Washington D.C. Regional
UConn (1)
How they got here - Husky fans breathed a collective sigh of relief
on Friday night when Connecticut came back from a 12 point second half
deficit to defeat 16th-seeded Albany. Fans didn’t have much time to
catch their breath, however, because the Huskies barely survived a late
surge from Kentucky in the second round before defeating them 87-83.
UConn was led by sensational play from point guard Marcus Williams who
averaged 20.5 points and eight assists in the first two games.
How far will they go - Don’t be fooled by the early round trouble,
UConn is one of the best teams in the country. They are deep (six
players with 9.8 ppg or higher), they are tall (four players who are
6’8” or taller) and they can play defense (an NCAA leading 8.9 blocks
per game). The knock on the Huskies has been that they and their best
player, show-stopper Rudy Gay, can be inconsistent. But UConn’s road to
the Final Four is fairly easy: After playing 5th-seeded Washington in
the Battle of the Huskies, Connecticut could meet either George Mason or
Wichita State, who are seeded 11 and 7 respectively.
Washington (5)
How they got here - After dispatching 12th-seeded Utah State 75-61
in the first round, the Huskies faced 2005 national runner-up Illinois.
Washington overcame an 11 point defecit in the second half to beat the
Fighting Illini 67-64. The team was led by potential All-American
Brandon Roy, who is averaging 24.5 points per game in the tournament.
Freshman Justin Dentmon added 13 points in Washington’s second round
victory.
How far will they go - The Huskies answered their critics simply by
making the Sweet 16 but they still have to face Connecticut. If Roy and
his team find a way past UConn, then they face a mid-major in the Elite
Eight. A surprise Final Four appearance is not out of the question.
George Mason (11)
How they got here - The Patriots beat two 2005 Final Four teams
to reach the Sweet 16, something no other team can boast. They are also
the first Colonial Athletic Association team to make it this far since
Richmond did it in 1988. George Mason beat Michigan State 75-65 in the
opening round behind sophomore forward Will Thomas’s 18 points and 14
boards. The Patriots then stunned the defending champion North Carolina
Tar Heels, 65-60. Against UNC, sophomore Folarin Campbell led the way
with 21 points.
How far will they go - George Mason faces Wichita State in the
Sweet 16. It is not inconceivable to believe the Patriots could advance
but don’t count on it. And if they do, one of the Husky teams will be
blocking the road to the Final Four.
Wichita State (7)
How they got here - The Shockers
handled Seton Hall easily in the first round, beating them 86-66. Then
the Missouri Valley Conference’s regular season champion sent 2nd-seeded
Tennessee packing by defeating the Vols 80-73. This is the first Sweet
16 appearance for Wichita State in 25 years, and they got there by
playing balanced basketball. Four of the five starters have scored 25
points in the tournament so far.
How far will they go - While Wichita State is the favorite
against George Mason they should not look past the Patriots who shoot
the ball well especially from beyond the arc. If the Shockers were to
advance they would face UConn or Washington in the Elite Eight. Expect
the Shockers to beat George Mason but fall short in the next round.
Minneapolis Regional
Villanova (1)
How they got here - After a slow start against Monmouth (12
points in the first 14 minutes) the Wildcats were able to find their
game and win comfortably, 58-45. In the second round they met Arizona
who tested them in front of Villanova’s hometown crowd in Philadelphia.
The Wildcats survived a late Arizona surge and held on for the 82-78
victory. As the case has been all season the team was led by the guard
duo of Randy Foye and Allan Ray who scored 85 of the teams' 140 total
points.
How far will they go - Villanova faces a strong Boston College team
that nearly beat Duke in the ACC finals a couple weeks ago. B.C. could
take advantage of the Wildcats lighting quick but small four-guard set.
‘Nova has experience playing, and beating, bigger teams. Just ask UConn
who couldn’t survive the pressure of the relentless Wildcat defense
which forced 17 turnovers en route to a Villanova victory Feb. 13. If
they get past B.C. they would face a strong Florida team or a Georgetown
team who they already beat once this year. A potential rubber game with
Connecticut looms in the Final Four, but the Wildcats must focus on B.C.
if they hope to make it that far.
Boston College (4)
How they got here - Many people’s brackets were nearly
destroyed when the Eagles were down by six in overtime to Pacific.
However B.C. rallied and won in the second overtime 88-76. They then
faced 12th-seeded Montana who they beat 69-56. The team has been led by
senior forward Craig Smith who has averaged 23.5 points and 14.5
rebounds per game in the tournament. Jared Dudley also contributed 21.5
points per game.
How far will they go - The match up with Villanova is intriguing
because of the teams' contrasting styles: B.C. is led by two 6’7”
forwards in Smith and Dudley while the Wildcats rely on the guard play
of Foye and Ray. If B.C. can win, they face Florida or Georgetown in the
Elite Eight. Neither team is as tough as ‘Nova but either opponent could
block the Eagles’ path to the Final Four.
Florida (3)
How they got here - Perhaps no team has looked as impressive
in the tournament as Florida. They beat South Alabama and
Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 26 and 22, respectively. The Gators have a strong
team led by 6’11” Joakim Noah. In the tournament the sophomore
forward/center has scored 33 points, grabbed 15 rebounds and dished out
13 assists.
How far will they go - If any team in the Minneapolis bracket has a
direct answer for Noah it is their Sweet 16 opponent Georgetown. This
should be a great battle down low. If the Gators were to win it would be
an epic battle against either Boston or Villanova. Expect Florida to
fall just short of the Final Four.
Georgetown (7)
How they got here - After beating mid-major power Northern Iowa
in the opening round the Hoyas had to face 2nd-seeded Ohio State in
Dayton, Ohio. Despite being in a hostile environment, Georgetown cruised
to a 70-52 victory. The Hoyas have been led by their massive center
Hibbert who scored 37 points and grabbed 23 boards in the first two
rounds.
How far will they go - Which Georgetown team will show up in
Minneapolis: the team that beat Ohio State and Duke or the team that
gave South Florida its first and only Big East win? The Hoyas have
proved that they can play with anybody, but now it is up to coach John
Thompson to get his team ready. Anything is possible with this
team--from a loss to Florida to a Final Four appearance.
Current NCAA
men's tournament standings
Sweeney's
predictions
Produced by Washington and Lee journalism students.
Lead supervisor: Prof. Claudette Artwick
Reporting supervisor: Prof. Doug Cumming
Editing supervisor: Prof. Pamela Luecke
Technical supervisor: Michael Todd