Vote may split, leaving room for Democrat

By Julie von Sternberg

A grueling Republican primary election in state Senate District 24 last June divided local conservatives, giving the Democratic challenger a chance to take the district out of Republican control for the first time in 12 years.

At least that’s the way Mike Oxford, chair of the Lexington Democratic Committee, sees it. He says David Cox, the Democrat in the Nov. 6 election, has a shot.

“I think he’s running a nice campaign,” said Oxford.

But odds strongly favor the Republican incumbent, Sen. Emmett Hanger. The district, one of the most conservative in the state, includes Greene and Augusta counties, part of Rockbridge and Rockingham counties, and Lexington, Staunton and Waynesboro.

Statewide, Democrats need to win four new seats to regain a majority in the state Senate, assuming they also hold on to their current 17 seats. Nine of the Democratic incumbents are running uncontested. A Democrat-controlled state Senate would have further national implications, because it could re-draw Congressional district lines in 2011 to favor more Democrats in Congress from Virginia.

Meanwhile, in the District 24 election, Libertarian candidate Arin Sime is excited about his making it a three-way race.

“I wish there were more races like this,” said Sime. “When there are so few candidates, it just distorts the process.”

In the May Democratic caucus, Cox beat Will Hrovat, a p

ower plant operator for Virginia Dominion Power, winning 70 percent of the vote.

In the Republican primary, Hanger beat Lexington businessman Scott Sayre in a race in which Sayre attacked Hanger as not conservative enough on taxes and immigration. Sayre was endorsed by County Republican Chair Mike Meredith and the Virginia Conservative Action PAC.

On his Web site, Hanger defends his stance on taxes.

“I am a strong advocate for fiscal responsibility, but I recognize that the term fiscal responsibility may or may not mean lowering taxes and it may or may not mean reducing spending,” he writes. Hanger did not return several phone calls.

After his loss, Sayre wrote a letter endorsing Hanger. However, it is unclear whether the gesture will unite local Republicans who might still be divided on issues such as taxes.

Some local Democrats think Sayre supporters will choose Sime over Hanger because they agree more with the former on taxes. Sime is a strong fiscal conservative who promises not to raise taxes if elected.

“Sime is definitely going to take some of the more ideologically pure Republican vote,” said Oxford.

Cox agrees that taxes were an important issue in the primary, but says that the issue is insignificant at this point in the race.

“People recognize that we have to pay taxes in order to get the services we want,” Cox said.

Hanger’s victory threw a curve for Cox, who was hoping that he would run against a more conservative candidate, picking up more supporters from the political middle.

An Episcopalian minister, Cox last ran for office in 2005, when he competed for the House of Delegates and lost to incumbent Del. Ben Cline (R-District 24). Cox received only 37.5 percent of the votes.

This year, Cox says, he is confident.

“I think that people are looking toward the future with a degree of hope and also with a sense that it’s time for change,” said Cox.
Cox points out that one key issue in this election is that the winner will, with other members of the Senate, determine Congressional and state redistricting in 2011. That process will use the population results of the 2010 census.

Cox and Sime both say that the current system of state districting has allowed one party to maintain power in certain areas over long periods of time, making three-party races rare. That also explains why 17 of the 40 senatorial seats are not being contested.

“The result has been that there a lot of districts that are strongly Republican and strongly Democratic and there is not a lot of competition,” said Cox.

To address the problem another way, Sime proposes term limits.
“I think that term limits are very important to try and prevent career politicians,” said Sime, “to try and make our elections more competitive.”

Hanger, first elected in 1999 and re-elected in 2003, will be running for his third term, which would give him 12 years in office.
“Hanger is a good example of why we need term limits,” said Roger Dean, former chairman of the Rockbridge Republican Committee and a delegate to the national GOP convention in 1996.

Cox proposes a different solution: Putting a nonpartisan body in charge of re-districting.

“That way we can have geographic districts that are not created on the basis of partisan politics but rather good sense,” said Cox.
In January 2007, a constitutional amendment was proposed in Virginia to create a commission made up of five members. Under this amendment, commissioners could not have held public or political party office in the previous five years. The bill died after nine days of consideration.

Only five states – Arizona, Idaho, Hawaii, Washington and New Jersey – carry out congressional re-districting by means of an independent, bipartisan commission.

Dean, a professor of management at Washington and Lee University, is skeptical of Cox’s plan to implement that type of system.

“He will do exactly what the Democrats did before and what the Republicans are now doing,” said Dean. “It’s one of the spoils of the office.”