Mock Convention wrestles with earlier primaries
An increasingly front-loaded presidential primary schedule could take the fun out of predicting the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee at Washington and Lee University’s Mock Convention next year.
So far, three primaries and three caucuses have been scheduled before the convention on Jan. 25.
Supporters say many other features help make Mock Con a performance that deserves its national reputation and makes 90 percent of the student body willing to participate. They point to a parade that in the past has featured live elephants, to famous keynote speakers and to the hope that something like the 1908 fist fight will re-materialize.
But the biggest enticement is the opportunity for college students to participate in real time and to make predictions.
Eighteen of 23 times since its inception in 1908, the quadrennial convention has made the correct prediction of the nominee of the political party not in the White House. As a result, The Washington Post in 1996 declared it “one of the nation’s oldest and most prestigious mock conventions.” Time magazine has called it “the biggest and boomiest.”
This year’s early state primary and caucus results will make the likely nominee easier to guess than ever before. Primaries in Michigan, South Carolina and New Hampshire and caucuses in Wyoming, Iowa and Nevada will be held before W&L’s convention.
Today, long after the time in history when delegates and power-brokers actually fought over nominees at national conventions, primaries and caucuses determine which candidate for president will be selected at the national convention of each political party.
Brooke Segodnia, a member of the Virgin Island delegation, is upset by the early primary schedule.
“It will make some state delegations’ decisions seem like second announcements instead of predictions,” says Segodnia. “There is nothing impressive about restating what the state primaries already decided.”
Mock Con Political Chair Wesley Little, who is in charge of scheduling, says that almost all state chairs have seen their conventions move up in the year.
“It has presented difficulties,” Little said, “but we just have to stay on top of the ball research-wise and make sure that everyone is committed to understanding the process.”
The first W&L Mock Convention was held in May, and that continued as late as the 1970s. But as states scheduled earlier and earlier primaries, W&L was forced to continually reschedule its convention.
In 1992, the convention was moved from March to January to get ahead of Feb. 5, a “Super Tuesday” of primaries. Now that day is called “Tsunami Tuesday” because of the large number of state primaries held that day.
National Democratic Party rules forbid all states but Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to hold primaries or caucuses before Feb. 5. Traditionally, results from Iowa and New Hampshire are seen as early indicators of who will be nominated.
So candidates often focus their campaigns there, and media attention usually follows. Critics have complained that these states – and their particular economic interests that presidential candidates are forced to address – are not representative of the country as a whole.
Thus, there’s a scramble for earlier and earlier primaries. Mississippi Secretary of State Eric Clark believes that the presidential primary system is unfair, and in 2000 he called for an overhaul. This year, some states, including Wyoming and Michigan, have scheduled their primaries before Iowa’s caucus on Jan. 19.
Little says that W&L might adapt its prediction schedule to fit that of the states’ early primaries. If that plan is chosen, W&L state delegations with a primary before Jan. 25 will make their predictions the night before the state’s primary results are announced.
While such changes will make Little’s job more difficult, he supports and respects the states’ decisions. He agrees that it is unfair that Iowa and New Hampshire get all the attention when other states may be more diverse.
To cut down on changes, the Democratic National Committee is threatening to punish states for breaking the Feb. 5 regulation. Florida, whose primary is scheduled for Jan. 19, might be prohibited from sending delegates to the 2008 Democratic convention. That, however, is still undecided.
“It’s
definitely frustrating to have so much indecision,” Little said.
While the change has created problems for convention chairs, students seem to be unaffected. This year’s State Delegation Fair, in which students signed up to join a state delegation, was one of the most successful in history, with 1,600 members each paying $30.
Delegation members make predictions after doing months of research, mainly on a grassroots level, by calling their state’s residents as well as experts.
W&L Senior Kelly Boss, a member of the Washington, D.C., delegation, does not believe that the early primary hustle will affect the reputation of the convention.
“There are other aspects besides accurate predictions that make the convention well known,” Boss said. “We have high student participation and great quality speakers. That is something to be proud of, too.”
The silver-tongued William Jennings Bryan, who spoke at Mock Con during his third bid for president, was the first of many famous political orators to grace the W&L stage. What followed was an impressive string of former presidents, vice presidents, governors and senators.
The actions of some of those speakers are legendary. Bill Clinton is known for playing the saxophone at an off-campus party. In 1956, former Vice President Alben Barkley spoke his last words on a Mock Con stage.
“I would rather be a servant in the house of the Lord than sit in the seats of the mighty,” he said just before collapsing and dying.
The keynote speaker for the upcoming convention has yet to be announced. Little is confident that the convention, which is celebrating 100 years since its founding, will be just as successful as its precursors.
“We are making an effort to make the events bigger and boomier than ever,” he said. “We are working harder than ever to ensure that the 2008 convention sets records for student participation and enjoyment.”
Produced by Washington and Lee journalism students.
Lead supervisor: Prof. Brian Richardson
Reporting supervisors:
Technical supervisor: Michael Todd