Senate race could spell change for Va.
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| Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore square off in a debate in Fairfax County last month. (AP Images) |
While Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a bitter battle for Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, former Gov. Mark Warner is taking what some call a “victory lap” around the state.
Warner, a Democrat, leads former Gov. Jim Gilmore, the Republican nominee, by as many as 30 points in the race for Virginia’s open Senate seat, according to at least one poll.
Last summer, after Sen. John W. Warner (no relation to Mark Warner) announced that he would not seek a sixth term, four candidates jumped into the open contest. Libertarian Bill Redpath and Independent Green Glenda Parker join Gilmore and Warner on the ticket.
With fewer than two weeks until Election Day Warner’s lead might appear insurmountable.
“Nothing less than an apocalyptic event will stop the Old Dominion from having two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor — at least until next year,” University of Virginia professor and political guru Larry Sabato said on his Web site.
Sabato is referring to Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine, who was elected in 2005, and Democratic Sen. Jim Webb. Webb beat Republican George Allen in 2006 by less than one half of one percent.
Virginia, which has voted Republican in every presidential race since 1964, has become a battleground for Obama and McCain. In a recent Washington Post-ABC poll Obama led McCain by almost 7 percentage points.
Virginia now has more than 5 million registered voters, according to the state Board of Elections. Since January, Virginia has had a net gain of 436,000 voters.
The recent Washington Post-ABC poll has Warner leading Gilmore 61 percent to 31 percent.
The race has largely focused on the candidates’ records as governor.
Warner has accused Gilmore of leaving Virginia with a budget shortfall that reached more than $6 billion, which Gilmore has denied. Gilmore has criticized Warner for raising Virginia taxes when he campaigned on the promise of no tax increase.
Gilmore’s bid for the Senate has also included denouncing the financial bailout package signed into law by President Bush earlier this month.
“Requiring taxpayers to cough up $700 billion without providing them any additional assurances for their own financial security is wrong,” Gilmore said in a press release.
In the release, Gilmore says that he will fight for taxpayers, but Warner “will fight for the high rollers on Wall Street.”
Warner has said that he liked the rescue plan and would have voted for it.
Neither Gilmore nor Warner has ever held federal office.
Warner’s popularity as governor has carried over into his bid for the Senate seat. In 2005, his last year in office, he had a 63 percent approval rating, according to a poll by SurveyUSA. In this year’s race, Warner has been careful to try to appeal to moderate Republicans as well as the burgeoning numbers of Virginia Democrats.
Warner has shown an affinity for some traditional Republican values. For example, he and Gilmore both received “A” grades from the National Rifle Association.
Gilmore’s own attempts to appeal to the Republican base in Virginia have apparently found limited success.
“The Virginia GOP has moved even further right at a time when the state as a whole has dramatically moderated, making the Republican party’s brand unpalatable to the key swing moderates and independents who determine the results of general elections,” said Sabato on his Web site.
Rather than emphasize his gubernatorial record, Gilmore has focused on attacking Warner. Gilmore circulated a Web advertisement featuring highly critical comments Warner made 14 years ago about the National Rifle Association, pro-lifers and homeschoolers.
Warner has since said that the comments were “over the top, and I wish I had them back,” according to The News Virginian in Waynesboro.
Gilmore has also sought to tie himself with McCain in his television ads.
“We need Jim Gilmore in the U.S. Senate, and so does John McCain,” a narrator states in one ad.
The same ad ties Warner to Obama, who recently asked Kaine, Webb, and Warner to appear in ads on his behalf. Kaine, who was on Obama’s vice presidential short list, has endorsed Obama for almost two years, but Warner has not yet agreed to Obama’s request.
Warner recently gained the endorsement of the Virginia chapter of the Fraternal Order of Police, which is supporting McCain in the presidential race.
Two small veterans groups,Vets for Freedom and Iraqi Veterans Group, said they are backing Gilmore’s U.S. Senate campaign. The groups combined have about 900 voters in Virginia.
If elected, Gilmore promises to reduce taxes, create jobs, and increase America’s domestic supply of oil and gas. Earlier this month, Warner promised that fixing the educational standards of the federal “No Child Left Behind” law will be one of the first things on his agenda.
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