Davis won't seek Republican Senate nomination in 2008

By Julie von Sternberg

Rep. Tom Davis announced Thursday that he will not run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. John Warner in 2009.

Instead, the Northern Virginia Republican said, he might run for freshman Democratic Sen. Jim Webb’s seat in 2012.

“We're not going to do the Senate this time," Davis told reporters after an invitation-only breakfast in Washington, D.C.

Davis was expected to run against former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore for the Republican nomination. Then, on Oct. 13, the state Republican Party decided to hold a convention instead of a primary in June. In a convention, the nominee is chosen by a limited number of party loyalists, while a primary in Virginia is open to anyone who wants to vote as a Republican.

For Davis, a moderate seven-term congressman, that was bad news. Davis was expected to benefit from a primary because it would have allowed more liberal or independent-minded voters to participate in the nomination process. The party loyalists who will be present at the convention are expected to favor the more ideologically conservative Gilmore.

Gilmore, who was governor from 1998 to 2002, says that his main reason for supporting a convention over a primary was the difference in the cost of running a campaign. At an estimated $4 million, a primary would have cost him about $3 million more than a convention. That is in addition to running in the general election.

Gilmore also cited money as the reason for ending his early campaign for the presidency on July 14. He says he dropped out because of the difficulty of raising new funds. According to the Federal Elections Commission, his short campaign left him about $60,000 in debt.

In his announcement, Davis acknowledged that the party’s decision to hold a convention strongly influenced his decision not to run.

"If you're tied up in a convention fight where you can't do the kind of grassroots [effort] you would ordinarily do -- run a campaign in the traditional sense against the Democrat -- it just becomes a very, very difficult undertaking," Davis said. He also wants to prevent a split in the Republican Party, he said.

Katherine Smith, chair of the Lexington-Rockbridge-Buena Vista Republican Committee, had the same concerns before Davis’ announcement.

“If they don’t find a way to heal the wounds after the convention, the Republicans will continue to struggle between various factions in the party,” Smith said.

Davis’ decision has apparently saved the Republican Party from any lingering resentment that would have resulted from the convention. Now, Gilmore can focus on battling his expected Democratic opponent, former Gov. Mark Warner.

The fight for the Senate seat began when John Warner, 80, a Republican and 1949 Washington and Lee alumnus, announced on Aug. 31 that he would not run for re-election after holding the seat for 30 years. As a result, the U.S. Senate race next year will be the first one without an incumbent candidate in Virginia since 1988.

In order to retake the Senate from the Democrats, who are now in control 51 to 49, the Republicans must defend 21 of 33 seats up for grabs. With Democratic wins becoming more prevalent in Virginia – Mark Warner in 2001, Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005 and U.S. Sen. Jim Webb in 2006 – it is likely that Mark Warner could take the seat.

Warner, who was elected governor in 2002, left office in 2006 as one of the most popular political figures in the state. During his governorship, Warner liked to call Virginia “the best managed state in the nation, ” after a two-year study by the Government Performance Project gave the state one of the highest overall ratings.

Steve Pazmino, Senate caucus director for the Democratic Party of Virginia, based in Richmond, says that Warner has the election in the bag.

“I would expect that Warner should win pretty convincingly,” said Pazmino.

Warner showed off his money-collecting abilities early by raising more than $1.1 million in 17 days. Davis fell far shy, raising just $223,000 between July 1 and Sept. 30. Gilmore is not currently raising money, according to federal campaign finance reports.

According to a Washington Post poll earlier this month, Warner held a 61-31 percent lead over Gilmore and a 63-28 percent lead over Davis.

But the Republicans are not going down without a fight.

“We are not going to give up a seat because the news media says it is a sure thing,” said Bob James, vice chair of the Rockbridge County Republican Committee. “Never say die.”