Democrats win governor's office
but not control of Virginia politics

By Bibeka Shrestha

Democrats held on to Virginia's governor's office Tuesday, with Tim Kaine winning 51 percent of the vote, but Republicans will likely continue to control the rest of state politics. 

“I don’t think Virginia will ever be a blue state,” said Joshua J. Scott, the director of programs at University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “But it may be moving toward being a purple state.”

Republicans took the Lieutenant Governor's office in a narrow race between Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Leslie Byrne.  The Attorney General's spot is still too close to call.

Hampden Smith III, a journalism professor at Washington and Lee University and political commentator, agreed. “I’m not prepared to argue that Virginia voters are less inclined to be Republicans,” said Smith. “It is more accurate to say that Democrats are becoming successful by taking positions more in tune with the majority of voters in Virginia.”      

Election results seem to corroborate Scott's theory about Virginia becoming a purple state. Rockbridge County, Lexington and Buena Vista overwhelmingly re-elected Republican Ben Cline to the House of Delegates with 58 percent of the vote. But 51 percent of the same three localities chose Democrat Tim Kaine, showing that Republicans do not completely dominate the area.

But Democrats will not be able to maintain a stronghold in Virginia if they do not change their strategy, observers say. Democrats can’t win elections in Virginia just by getting votes from other Democrats, Scott said.  “They have to inspire independents and Republicans to come over and vote for them,” Scott said.

Both experts agreed that Gov. Mark Warner was able to win the 2001 election because he was able to do just that. “Warner took social issues that hurt Democrats off the table,” Scott said.

Kaine was also able to inspire those Republican and Independent votes, and beat Kilgore by a greater margin than polls had predicted.  Independent candidate Russ Potts garnered only about two percent of the vote.

But despite his best efforts to tie himself to Warner, Kaine had not been able to steer clear of politically risky issues. His opposition to the death penalty was a source of controversy during the campaign.

According to Smith, however, Virginians were appalled by the pro-death penalty ads that Kilgore ran.  "It was a little more over-the-top than people wanted."

To succeed in the future, Democrats must gain the support of people outside their party while Republicans need the backing of a unified party, Scott said. Republicans need to overcome recent splits within the GOP. Specifically, the division between socially conservative Republicans and “small government” conservatives could hurt the party, Smith said.

Republicans have a natural advantage in state elections even with this tension, Scott said.

While the governor’s race was close, that was hardly the case with many state delegate elections in Virginia. According to Scott, only a handful of district races were remotely competitive.

Smith agreed. “There are so few competitive districts that it’s hardly worth talking about,” he said.

Smith said the local race for a seat in the House of Delegates between Republican incumbent Ben Cline and Democrat David Cox had been competitive; however, the race was called for Cline early Tuesday night.

Smith said Cox took moderate positions that would appeal to more conservative voters even though he ran on the Democratic ticket.  Cox has avoided speaking about abortion and is opposed to gay marriage, Smith said.

“Cline’s strength is being a part of the Republican establishment,” Smith said. Name-recognition and being an incumbent also significantly raise a candidate’s chances of winning, Smith said.

Still, Republicans do not have a statewide advantage over Democrats. Northern Virginia appears to be a battleground that Democrats can use to their advantage, Scott said. “This can happen if Democrats get a stronger bench of candidates to compete with the stable of candidates that Republicans have.”

Produced by Washington and Lee journalism students.

Lead supervisor:      Prof. Claudette Artwick

Reporting supervisor: Prof. Doug Cumming

Editing supervisor:  Prof. Pamela Luecke

Technical supervisor:  Michael Todd